About
The INET Center on Knightian Uncertainty is a nonprofit research organization dedicated to developing theory, methods, and tools for economics and forecasting in a changing world.
The Center was launched in 2024 and is located in Copenhagen, Denmark.
The Center is funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).
Our work builds on and extends the work of the previous INET-funded programs, the INET Program on Knightian Uncertainty Economics, the INET Center on Knightian Uncertainty at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, and the INET Program on Imperfect Knowledge Economics, and on Imperfect Knowledge Economics developed by Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg.
The Idea
Our work is based on the idea that the economy's structure changes in nonrepetitive ways that we cannot foresee, even in probabilistic terms.
These unforeseeable changes render the future different from the past, and they imply that we face Knightian uncertainty about future outcomes, not just probabilistic risk.
Consequently, we cannot have perfect probabilistic knowledge of how future economic outcomes will unfold. Instead, our knowledge of the future is inherently imperfect.
What We Do
We pursue our mission through two mutually reinforcing tracks.
Our fundamental research develops theory, econometric tools, and empirical evidence that take unforeseeable structural change seriously — from rational expectations under change to new methods for detecting instability.
Building on this foundational work, our Forecasting in a Changing World program develops forecasting methods and end-to-end workflows for environments where relationships in the data shift and standard pipelines break down.
We disseminate our research and its implications to a broad audience through our Substack, Modeling an Unforeseeable Future, and on LinkedIn.
We arrange courses to teach young scholars and professionals about the importance of unforeseeable change and Knightian uncertainty in Economics.
We are also building an international network of young scholars, academics, and professional economists interested in learning about and contributing to our work.
Partnerships and Support
We seek partnerships and funding that support fundamental research, open-source tooling, and applied research on forecasting under structural change. We welcome collaborations with researchers and institutions who share our interest in developing economics and forecasting for a changing world.
If you are interested in working with us, please get in touch.
Leadership
Morten Nyboe Tabor is the Director and founder of the Center with co-founder Prof. Roman Frydman, New York University. Morten holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Copenhagen. He has previously worked as a Postdoc at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, where he won several awards for his innovative teaching of time-series econometrics. Before founding the Center, he worked as a researcher in the INET Program on Knightian Uncertainty Economics.
Board
The members of the Center's Board are:
- Nikolaj Harmon (Chair), Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.
- Anders Ejstrup (Vice Chair), Director, Senior Portfolio Manager, Team Investment Strategy, ATP.
- Arvid Aagaard, Head of Strategy and Funding, TRACE.
- Martin Boje Møller Rasmussen, Chief Consultant, Secretariat for the Danish National Center on Ethics.
Advisory Board
The members of the Center's Advisory Board are:
- Roman Frydman, Prof. at New York University and Co-Founder of the Center.
- Rob Johnson, President of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).
- Jay Pocklington, Director of the Young Scholars Initiative (YSI) at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).
- Niels Thygesen, Prof. Emeritus at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.