We develop theory, methods, and tools for economics and forecasting in a changing world
Explore ↓The Idea
The economy changes in ways we cannot foresee — yet standard theory and forecasting practice implicitly assume stability. Taking unforeseeable structural change seriously requires new theory, new econometric tools, and new forecasting workflows.
What We Do
Fundamental Research
We develop theory, econometric tools, and empirical evidence that take unforeseeable structural change seriously — from rational expectations under change to new methods for detecting instability.
Explore our research →Forecasting in a Changing World New program
Building on our foundational research, we are developing forecasting methods and end-to-end workflows for environments where relationships in the data shift and standard pipelines break down.
Learn more →What We Build and Share
Software
We build regimes, an open-source Python package for structural-change econometrics and forecasting — break detection, stability testing, regime-aware estimation, and forecasting tools for unstable environments.
Teaching
We teach courses on structural change and forecasting under instability, for PhD students and practitioners.
Learn more →Writing
We write about our ideas and their implications on our Substack, Modeling an Unforeseeable Future, and in our monthly Knightian Uncertainty Dispatch.
Network
We are building a community of academics and practitioners who share our interest in structural change, Knightian uncertainty, and their implications.